2025 Books, Part 1

Every year, I try to write a post about books that I’ve read in the past year. This time, I found myself writing so much about some of the books, that the post was getting unmanageably large. So I’ve split it in two. This is part one; part two will follow. 

Geoff Eley, Forging Democracy: The History of the Left in Europe, 1850–2000. This book should be required reading for anyone who wants to build on the traditions of radical politics, especially those in conversation with Marxism. If you read this blog, and you haven’t read this book, you should go read it. (You can come back here in a month or whenever when you’re done.)

This is a genuine history of movements, not of parties or political leaders or theorists. It’s striking how many of the quotes are attributed to roles (“a contemporary union leader”, “a Vienna suffragist”) rather than to named individuals. The book’s title is well chosen: The central theme is that the project of socialism is the extension of collective self-government to all of social life, including the organization of production. Socialism, in other words, is simply a continuation of the struggle for political rights. 

The term social democracy — which today suggests an anodyne reformism — meant originally a program to extend democratic principles from the demarcated political sphere to the rest of society, in particular the economy. The party, let’s not forget, that the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks were factions of, was the Russian social democratic party. This continuity between from the battle for democratic rights — and later against fascism — to socialist politics comes through very clearly here.

This is not just a history of socialist parties, and much of the book — especially in the earliest and the latest, post-1968 sections — is devoted to non-electoral formations. But party politics is central, and for good reason. In many ways it was socialists who invented modern political parties. Electoral politics was originally an arena for competition between personality- and patronage-based fractions of the elite. It was only once socialists and their labor allies invented mass organizations for contesting the ballot that centrist and conservative parties developed in response. There is an important figure-ground reversal here from the Whiggish liberal conventional wisdom in which parliamentary politics is the ground on which socialist politics occupies (usually small) part. 

One thing you will come away from this book with is a sense of how much the terrain of political struggle has shifted over time. It’s like a 500-page working-out of the William Morris line that “men fight and lose the battle, and the thing that they fought for comes about in spite of their defeat, and when it comes turns out not to be what they meant, and other men have to fight for what they meant under another name.” It is tempting, today, to look back on the debates of the past as having had right side and wrong side, and to think that what we learn form them is to take correct position rather than the incorrect one. But what a history like this makes clear is that the right and wrong positions, to the extent we can identify them even in retrospect, were right and wrong with respect to conditions at the time of that debate. What was wrong at one time may very well be right at another — or simply irrelevant.

Which doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t learn from the past, or that there isn’t a great deal to learn from it. 

One lesson that comes through clearly is how much the progress over the past 200 years has been won in a few brief windows. Advances for human freedom and equality are real and, so far, irreversible; but they have been episodic rather than incremental. Besides the period of the French Revolution (outside of the scope of the book), the two great periods of revolutionary change are the decade or so during and following each of the world wars. The basic contours of electoral democracy were only firmly established in the wake of the revolutionary transformations of the First World War; the welfare state, the recognition of women’s humanity and the end of colonial empires in the wake of the Second.  

The thing to remember here is that these changes were not inevitable. They did not just happen. They were the result of titanic struggles from below — struggles which however were often aiming at other goals, which they often failed to achieve. 

A few other throughlines. One is that working-class movements have been led by relatively privileged workers. Unskilled workers are capable of occasional convulsive uprisings, but at the the core of sustained working class institutions have been workers with some degree of autonomy and social power — skilled artisans in the 19th century, machine workers and then educated white-collar white workers in the 20th. Another sustained theme: Utopians are essential to more practical movements. A vision of a radically different world provides the energy required for even incremental improvements. 

Perhaps the most important lesson of the book is that the great left victories have come when radical, disruptive anti-systemic mass movements have worked in concert with parties of government. The same people, the same organizations can never be both; but each requires the other.  To put it another way: The content of elections comes from the possibility of riots and barricades, the value of riots comes from the possibility of state power. The existence of political democracy in any substantive sense is the flip side of the possibility of disruptive challenge from below.

All this is very broad-brush and abstract; most likely you either already agreed with it, or you don’t. If you want nuance, evidence, concrete examples — well then you have to read the book.

Han Kang, Human Acts and We Do Not Part. Thanks to Arjun for introducing me to Kang; these are two of the most powerful novels I’ve read in quite a while. 

The two books have a similar structure:  Each takes a historic atrocity by Korea’s US-backed military governments — the Gwangju uprising of 1980 in Human Acts, the lesser known but even bloodier Jeju massacres of 1948-49 in We Do Not Part — and follows the aftermath down to the present, exploring how people live with its memory. In both there is a certain supernatural aspect to the afterlife of the victims. Both ask how it is possible to live when one knows that one’s government, one’s country, the respectable people in authority, have committed indescribable crimes that have never been accounted for. 

Human Acts begins in the midst of the Gwangju uprising and then moves forward in time, looking at the events from the perspective of various participants — two young men who were killed, a blue-collar worker who was imprisoned and tortured, a journalist, a publisher struggling with military censors, a writer who resembles Han Kang. We Do Not part goes in the other direction, starting with a Kang-like writer (perhaps the same one) in a personal crisis, whose act of kindness for a friend carries her backward to the mass murder of suspected communists at the start of the Korean War. It ends with an indelible image of hope in darkness that is almost, but not quite, extinguished. 

Both are beautiful books; I cannot recommend them too highly. 

Brett Christophers, The Price is Wrong: Why Capitalism Won’t Save the Planet. I originally picked this up with the intention of writing something about it, which I did not end up doing. It was a frustrating read to me — I like the author and am very sympathetic to his broader worldview, and there’s a lot of specific information in this book that is valuable and compelling. But I am unconvinced by the book’s central argument. 

A proper critique of the book deserves far more space, which I still hope to give it at some point. But here’s the short version.

The core of Christophers’ argument is that while the cost of renewable energy is falling rapidly, that does not mean that the private power companies will adopt it. They are motivated by profit, and renewables, despite being cheaper, are not more profitable. So a transition away from fossil-fuel based electricity generation will also require a transition to public ownership, or to a non-capitalist economy more broadly.

I believe down to my bones that moving away from the pursuit of profit as the organizing principle of social life is possible, and necessary, and matters for almost everything. But I don’t think Christophers’ argument gets you there.

There are a couple basic problems with his argument. First, profit is the difference between the sale price of a commodity and its cost of production. So to say anything about differences in profit, across technologies or industries or over time, one needs to analyze the determination of cost and price independent of each other. But Christophers doesn’t do this. He instead frames his analysis in terms of the awkward portmanteau “cost-price.” 

If you wanted to take his analysis seriously, you would focus on the fact that in a competitive market, price tends toward marginal cost. If marginal cost is constant or falls with the level of production, and if fixed costs are substantial, then producers in a competitive market will face losses; such an industry won’t be viable in the long run. This was the situation of railways, for instance, in the late 19th century, which experienced repeated episodes of vicious price wars ending in general bankruptcy.

But capitalism is, of course, capable of producing railroads; this is because capitalism, despite some of its defenders’ claims, does not in general involve competitive markets. What we can say is that an industry like renewable energy, or railroads, requires a sufficient degree of monopoly power to enable it to recover its fixed costs. This is less of a problem for fossil fuels, where costs of production are a larger part of overall costs.

This problem is exacerbated by the specific way that electricity is priced in many markets, where the price is determined by the marginal producer. This was fine in an era where high-cost facilities would come online only when demand was high, raising profits for the rest of the industry. But when the marginal producer is a solar or wind facility, the price won’t cover fixed costs and the industry will make a loss. Christophers lays this out very well, and there’s no question it’s a real problem. But we should be clear: It’s a problem with how electricity prices are currently regulated. Not with clean energy or capitalism as such.

Second, let’s suppose that price-setting is such that a lower-cost production method will definitely lead to lower profits. Does that mean that profit-seeking capitalists will not adopt that method? Well no. Because there’s a critical distinction here between the individual enterprise, where production techniques are chosen, and the industry as a whole, where prices are set. If I can produce the same commodity at a lower cost than my competitors, then my profits will definitely increase. Perhaps, once the new method is generally adopted, everyone’s profits will be lower. But so what? I’m a capitalist! My own profits, now, are what I care about.

I admit that I am a little surprised that someone writing in the Marxist tradition doesn’t seem to have considered this possibility. This sort of collective-action problem among capitalists is the whole story of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall in Volume III of Capital. And it’s been a central subject of debate for Marxist economists ever since. I don’t necessarily expect Brett Christophers to have a settled view on the validity of the Okishio theorem. But I would kind of hope that he knows this conversation exists. 

This is all very critical; but, to be clear, there’s a great deal in the book that is useful and insightful. The problem is, the conclusion that the concrete material points to is that we need better rules for regulating electricity prices. If you want to get to an argument against organizing production on the basis of profit, you would need to start from somewhere else.

Cixin Liu, The Three Body Problem. There was some mix-up at Christmas last year, where two copies of this were purchased and no one was sure whether they were for me, the 13-year old, or my college-age nephew. I think I was the only one of the three of us who eventually read one.

For all the attention it’s gotten, I thought it was … ok. Or rather, the first two-thirds, which combined a slice of life from the last 50 years of Chinese history with a weird and unsettlingly out-of-focus mystery, was pretty good; and the last third, which rushed to tie up and explain everything, deflated most of what the first part had promised. At the end of the day, real human history and relationships offer much richer alien world than anything might work out about a hypothetical civilization on some other planet.

Michael Lewis, Who Is Government? I sent my post on teachers — which I was very pleased with; you should read it if you have not — to N+1 before putting it up on the blog; they didn’t go for it, but they did ask me to review this book. I read the book, but never wrote the review: I’d kind of got the larger points I wanted to make out of my system with the teachers post, and there wasn’t enough substance in the book to do much with on its own. 

The book, anyway, is edited by Michael Lewis; it’s a collection of admiring essays on federal employees, two by Lewis himself, the half-dozen others by various AtlanticHarper’sWashington Post type writers. Lewis’s essays are by a wide margin the best — whatever else you say about him, he really is a master of this type of storytelling. It helps that he chose interestingly offbeat subjects — a mine safety enforcer and an infectious-disease specialist — rather than the standard cop-astronaut-soldier palette of approved public occupations that the rest of the portraits are drawn from. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend buying this book; but if you see a copy in one of those little free library boxes on the street, you should take it out, read the two Lewis pieces, and then donate it to another one. 

John Kay, The Corporation in the 21st Century. As I’ve mentioned, Arjun’s and my next book is on the contradictions of the corporation. (Our working title is Relations of Production.) So I’ve been reading a bit on that, for instance this. This book has a tremendous number of fascinating stories and sharp observations — it’s a goldmine for someone else writing on the corporation — but the whole is perhaps less than the sum of its parts. Still, there are lots of good bits. Here is one passage that I appreciated:

Neither Amazon nor Apple has raised any money from shareholders since their IPO, and neither is ever likely to in the future. Past stockholder investment represents less than .01 per cent of the current value of these businesses. Modern companies are typically cash-generative before they reach a scale at which they become eligible for a listing on a public market. The purpose of the IPO is not to raise capital but to demonstrate to earlier investors and employees that there is value in their shareholdings and to enable some to realise that value. The objective of listing on a stock exchange is not to put money into the business but to make it possible to take money out of the business.

Kay has some interesting ideas about the diminishing importance of capital ownership as such to the organization of production and the generation of profits. But to me, anyway, the book is more interesting for the examples than for the larger argument they’re meant to support.

Katya Hoyer, Beyond the Wall: East Germany, 1949-1990. This is a history of East Germany that strives for a sympathetic perspective without flinching from the facts. Unfortunately, the latter are not very cooperative with the former.

I am probably an ideal reader for this book — you will find few people more willing to dispute the idea that the good guys won the Cold War, or to defend the record of actually existing communism. And Hoyer does a good job complicating the story of East versus West. She emphasizes, for example, that Stalin had no interest in creating a separate German puppet state, and consistently directed Communist leaders there to focus on maintaining their legitimacy in an eventual united Germany; the idea of building a separate socialist state in the East was a local initiative. She notes that expropriation of private businesses in the East was not nearly as immediate or complete as Cold War mythology suggests, with many former owners willingly remaining as managers of their enterprises under state ownership. Not so different from an IPO, when you think about it.

She also makes the interesting and, to me, convincing argument that in the early years, migration to the west was the result of success as much as failure — the East combined an excellent technical education and training system with a very flat distribution of income, creating a large stratum of moderately privileged engineers and skilled workers who saw the opportunity for greater privilege in the West. 

But ultimately, despite the successes (gender equality is another important one) it’s hard to find much positive to say about the East German leadership, and Hoyer’s story ends up being a rather dismal one. Keynes was very far from a Communist, but when he looked at the Soviet Union 100 years ago, he recognized that something new and important and genuinely promising was being attempted — that “beneath the cruelty and stupidity of New Russia some speck of the ideal may lie hid.” It would be much harder to say that about the cruelty and stupidity of the Ulbricht-Honecker regime. 

Alice Munro, The Progress of Love. This is not Munro’s very best work — I would give that to Dear Life, Friend of My Youth, Friendship, Courtship, Loveship, Marriage and perhaps Runaway — but it’s certainly not her worst. And honestly even her worst is good. 

As I noted on last year’s list, while I am generally on the side that says you can and should judge artistic work by the author’s personal conduct, I haven’t been able to give up Munro; I’ve been rereading her work since the revelations about her daughter came out. I dipped into various collections this year but this is the one I reread in full. 

When you read her in that light, it’s striking how many stories there are about neglectful mothers who lose, or almost lose a young daughter, or who could have lost one if not for some miracle. (Very often it’s to drowning — I don’t know what that means.) The self-involved mother and (nearly) drowned child moment is one of a number of situations and characters she keeps coming back to in her stories — rereading, it’s more striking how many of them are variations on a few themes.

This repetition to me is one of the things that’s fascinating about Munro. It’s almost like she’s a scientist— she has some fundamental problem she’s working over, an experiment she keeps rerunning under slightly different conditions to see if the results change. Which points to, I think, the difference between her and Allen, Polanski, etc. — like them she failed as a human being, but unlike theirs her art is conscious of that failure and struggles with it. If Woody Allen could make a movie from the perspective of a brilliant young female writer struggling with the attention of a lecherous older mentor, I might give him another chance.

Philip Stern, Empire, Incorporated: The Corporations That Built British Colonialism.  This is a comprehensive account of the role of corporations in creating the British Empire over the 16th to 19th century. This is a topic I’ve been interested in for a while but don’t have any real background in, and the book really clarified and reshaped my understanding of it. And as a book, it’s exhilarating.  It’s one of those impossibly comprehensive works of history by someone who seems to have read everything, and who has the perfect quote for any topic — the sort of book that makes you think that people in history graduate programs must learn some dark magic for note keeping.

From my point of view, it’s interesting for what it says about the idea that Arjun and I have been working on, as the corporation as a sort of social membrane between the logic of money and markets on the one hand and the socially embedded relationships through which production is actually organized, on the other. From this point of view — which we are hoping to developing in our next book, though I don’t want to put a date on it — the tensions between finance and production, between shareholders and managers, are not a recent historical development. On the contrary, a site of conflict between distinct social logics is just what a corporation is. 

Like several other books on this list, this deserves a long essay (and I had started to write one) but in lieu of that here’s a brief summary of some of the most interesting things I took from it.

First, the early modern corporations we are familiar with emerge out of a much broader and more diverse universe of organizations. This is I suppose obvious, but it tends to get effaced in accounts that are focused on the historical roots of modern corporations, which naturally focus on the lineages that survived. But for every East India Company or Hudson’s Bay Company, there are a dozen other joint stock companies organized around some mix of long distance trade and colonization, which weren’t successful enough to make it into most history books. 

Maybe more interesting is the diversity of institutional forms. Corporations have always combined public authority with private profit, but the exact mix has varied. One important divide in early colonizing corporations was between what one might call a feudal or seigneurial model, which involved the creation of communities with a distinct identity and local relations; versus a mercantile model in which claims were subdivided without any horizontal connections between franchisees. 

From the very beginning, there have been debates about whether corporations should be thought of as an extension of government or a form of private property. An important aspect of this debate was the question of whether corporations were created by public charters or patents, or whether the state was simply recognizing an existing set of relationships, as with the recognition of a marriage; or whether a corporation had no existence independent of the legal act that created it. 

This was linked to a larger question of whether sovereignty — legitimate political authority — was sanitary or dispersed throughout society. Or as Stern puts it: “To someone who imagined civil society as a conglomerate of concentric and intersecting corporate bodies … corporations were alternative and natural sites where people might choose to associate and govern themselves, produced in the first instance not by the state but rather by the people that formed them.”  

A central argument for organizing trade on the basis of the corporation — a delegation of sovereignty, or a recognition of existing organic connections — was, in the early modern period, a deep-seated idea that Europeans, or Christians (the equivalence of these categories is not a recent development) could not, as individuals, make any kind of agreement with non-Europeans. As Stern writes, paraphrasing Grotius, in Europe there was an existing political order that made private contracts possible; but “outside of Christendom,” Europeans could only make contracts unless they could first “bind themselves into a social contract under the protection of corporations.”

Historically, the corporate charter is cognate with both constitutions and patents; like the former, it was the basis of a delineated form of political authority, like the latter it gave exclusive rights to commercial activity in a certain sphere. Historically, there was a great deal of overlap in the  language and legal forms used for each of them. Seeing the patent, the corporation and the constitution as variations on the theme of delegated sovereignty, is one of the more valuable things I got from this book.

Dear Mother: Poems by Laura Tanenbaum

Readers of this blog know I have a book coming out later this spring — Against Money, officially out on May 7. Plenty of money-related content coming between now and then.

But today I’m writing about a different book: Dear Mother, a collection of poems by Laura Tanenbaum, just out from Main Street Rag.

Laura and I have been married for quite a few years now, and known each other for quite a few more. We first met almost exactly 25 years ago, at a grad student party in Northampton Massachusetts. So it’s a funny coincidence that our first books are coming out within a few months of each other.

Laura is doing a reading from her book this Tuesday, January 27, at Lofty Pigeon, a recently-opened bookstore in our south Brooklyn neighborhood. (The resurgence of independent bookstores is one positive development in the contemporary US that I would not have expected a few years ago.)

If you’re in New York and into poetry, you should stop by. Admittedly I am far from unbiased. But I think the poems are very good. Here are a couple of them.

*

IN-LAWS

“In five years, I’m going to fall in love with a fish,” the four-year-old declares, over hard-boiled eggs, on a ninety-degree day, to no one in particular. “They will be rainbow-colored with gray and black stripes. I will teach them to walk on their fin so they can come to our house. And I will teach them how to breathe. I will say, ‘It’s easy, fish. Just breathe like you did in water; only, it’s air.’ ”

His brother tells him he might need to compromise. Maybe six months on land, six months in the water, like the high-powered couples do. No, he says, concerned. The fish has to come to him. I’m watching his concern, trying to see which plane of reality he’s accessing, except that I no longer know what I mean by this. I know only that the words “imagination” and “metaphor” are insufficient to the task. And so I take his side. After all, we’ve learned from David Attenborough that evolution has carried countless creatures from the sea to us, not one has reversed course. When you forget how to make gills, they stay forgotten.

All of this may be why, the next day, after the temperatures had plunged thirty degrees overnight and the NYC Parks department and I both failed to adjust—me without a jacket, them, blasting the sprinklers—I was the only one who didn’t rush to pull a child back from the flood. He stomped on every fountainhead, threw himself on the ground. When he came to me, shivering, and the only change of clothes I had was shorts, and I saw the mother who had frantically been calling her Juniper back from the brink shoot me the look reserved for the parents of bad-example children, it took everything I had not to shout, You don’t understand! He’s looking for his fishwife! Wants to learn to live in her world! Learning to be flexible! And aren’t they going to need that what with the world and everything… Because I’m sure that Juniper’s mother would understand. That, like me, she has trouble imagining the future these days. That she would be comforted as I am by the thought of my future self, a crone in a cave, welcoming in any creature still capable of both tenderness and survival, teaching my son to tend to her scales.

*

2001: A SLEEP ODYSSEY

When my mother died,
I was six months in.
His body the size of a melon slice;
her body vaporized.

The mothers warn:
Sleep now, sleep deep.
Soon you’ll be in bits,
every hour broken.

Three months to go:
A second child.
Horizon long
as the rocket’s destination.

But no sleep came.
It’s winter now.
Five years have passed.
The melon slice half grown.

When my mother died,
I was six months in.
Tonight we watch the skies.
This time rest rushes forth.

Deeper, rounder,
with padded edges,
a floating bottom.
I sleep through half of 2001.

Just as the mothers warned.
When I woke, it faced me:
that stupid floating baby,
whimpering like a lost doe.

The others wondered why the baby.
Was it back to the apes?
Back to their own losses?
Was it the need to obliterate?

I didn’t wonder.
When my mother died,
I was six months in.
The movie’s future firmly in the past.

I already knew.
Nothing worth living happens in order.
Whether you wake for the ending,
or jolt back, or whether you miss it all.

2024 Books

From The Last Cruze, by LaToya Ruby Frazier. Laura and I went to see her show at MOMA this past summer. If I’d been able to find the coffee-table book version, it would be on this list.

Books I read in 2024:

Joe Studwell,  How Asia Works. Arjun recommended this to me some years ago; I finally read it this year because I assigned it to my economic history class. It’s one of the best things I’ve read on late industrialization in Asia — it can comfortably go on the shelf with Alice Amsden’s Asia’s Next Giant or Chalmers Johnson’s MITI and the Japanese Miracle, and in fact I’d recommend it over them, both because it’s more current, and because this is a topic that really benefits from a comparative perspective. One thing I particularly appreciated was his emphasis on the critical importance of land reform as a precondition for industrialization, both because of the greater efficiency of small farms in the labor-surplus context of early industrialization, and because of the need to close off land as an outlet for wealth to spur investment in industry.

Thomas A. Stapleford, The Cost of Living in America. A comprehensive history of the development of price-level statistics in the United States, which I read in the course of doing work on the money book. It’s an excellent work of narrative history which is equally attuned to the concrete work of producing price statistics, the theoretical questions of what they are intended to represent, the political stakes of debates over them, and the concrete purposes for which they are used. It’s a pretty specialized topic, admittedly, but if it’s one that you’re interested in, then this is the book to read.

Eric Hobsbawm, The Age of Revolution and The Age of Capital. I first read these many years ago in college, but reread them this year because the 13-year old still likes being read aloud to before bed and serious history is what he is into. The books are as good as I remembered; I would recommend them to anyone interested in how the modern world took shape in 19th century Europe. Hobsbawm’s communist politics aren’t overt, but they’re what make the books work: That everything builds toward the Russian Revolution gives them their propulsive force, rather than just being a catalogue of one thing after another.

Annie Ernaux, Exteriors and The Years. I read these this year, after reading her A Man’s Place last year. I didn’t find either of these quite as beautiful or as moving as that one, but they’re still great books. The Years uses a second person narration to seamlessly blend a personal narrative with the shared experience of a generation; I wonder, would this work for anyone who wasn’t born in the immediate postwar years?

Jonathan Levy, Ages of American Capitalism. This is another book I read because I assigned it for my economic history class. It worked perfectly for that purpose, both because it is a survey of the whole economic history of the United States from the 16th century to the present, and also because it has a strong central theme — the changing forms and meaning of capital as an organizing principle of economic life.

You can tell it was written by a historian rather than an economist — there are many more reproductions of painting and photos than there are charts or tables. Levy is a somewhat eccentric writer, and makes some quirky choices about how he approaches his topic — there’s a whole chapter based around a close reading of Melville’s “Confidence Man” as an illustration of the importance and difficulty of trusting strangers in a more mobile and urbanizing society, and the chapter on the civil war and reconstruction spends more time on how the war was financed than on changing labor relations in in the postwar South. But for anyone looking for a comprehensive economic history of the United States, I would very much recommend it.

Justin Torres, We the Animals. Laura recommended this one — the author is a friend of a friend. It’s a powerful, but lighthearted and poetic, book about growing up Dominican and gay in upstate New York. Like Ernaux’s The Years, it gets some its effect from the fuzziness of the protagonist, which gradually shifts from the three brothers collectively to the narrator alone.

Peter Stearns, The Industrial Revolution in World History. This book I also assigned to my economic history class, which was a mistake. If the book came out today, its garbled content would be a sure sign of AI slop. Did you know that enclosure in early modern England refers to a government requirement that all landowners put fences around their fields, which smaller landowners could not afford to do? (It does not). Do not read this book.

Joshua Freeman, Behemoth: A History of the Factory and the Making of the Modern World. This book, by the author of the magnificent Working Class New York, is one more that I read because I assigned it my economic history class. It tells the history of the factory through half a dozen iconic sites, from early 19th century Lowell, to early 20th century River Rouge, to Shenzhen today. While the broad outlines of most of the stories are broadly similar to what you would find in other histories of industrialization (the River Rouge chapter has considerable overlap with Levy’s chapter on the same topic) there’s also a lot here that was new to me, especially thanks to Freeman’s focus on the factory buildings themselves. One of the central themes of the book (which I touched on in a blog post) is how similar the experiences of factory work have been over the past two centuries, even when the broader social context is very different.

Stephen Marglin, Raising Keynes: A Twenty-First Century General Theory. I read this book partly because I recalled being very impressed years ago hearing Marglin give a talk based on the material in it, and partly in order to use parts of it in my graduate macro class. It turned out not to be helpful for that purpose, which is not a knock on the book — it’s just that with this kind of dense material you have to really focus on it if you are going to use at all.

The book presents itself as an effort to rewrite the theory of the General Theory in the language of contemporary economics. One thing I greatly appreciate about it is how attuned Marglin is to the real-world questions — both in Keynes’ time and today — that the theory must speak to. His central claim is that while the logic of Keynes’ argument does not work as he presented it, it does work when rewritten in terms of explicitly dynamic models. For this reason, much of the book is a deep dive into dynamics and various out-of-equilibrium adjustment processes, something that economists more often gloss over to focus on the ultimate equilibrium position.  It makes a big difference, for instance, if we think firms that find themselves with excess inventory respond by reducing prices or by reducing output.

I have mixed feelings about the book. I certainly share Marglin’s conviction that Keynes offers profound insights into the capitalist process, which need to be reformulated to connect with modern debates. And the book’s discussions of different adjustment dynamics is brilliant and original. But I am not sure that the latter helps much with the former — Marglin’s “rescue” of Keynes is not, to me, very satisfactory.1 So while there is a lot of great stuff in here, the book as a whole seems a bit less than the sum of its parts.

Ray Bradbury, The Martian Chronicles. Laura assigned this to a class, so it was around the house and I picked it up. What a weird and engrossing book. Even though it’s imagining a future that now lies well in the past, it doesn’t feel dated because Mars, here, is just an allegory for the American West.

Marc Kirschner and John Gerhart, The Plausibility of Life: Resolving Darwin’s Dilemma. I’ve always been fascinated by evolutionary biology, and evo-devo in particular. Among other things, it seems to me there’s a striking parallel between orthodox economic theory and the simplistic version of Darwinian evolution we’re taught in high school (and that’s now beloved of YouTube explainers.) The development of complex new forms is fundamentally different from movement toward an optimum within a given space of phenotypes — a difference highlighted by the kind of research into development described here. Evolution is not about selection between random genetic variation, but the result of preexisting systems that allow for the creation of complex forms, into which genes are just one input, often interchangeable with inputs from the environment or the organism’s own behavior.  The best book I’ve read on this topic remains Mary West Eberhart’s Developmental Plasticity and Evolution; but I learned a lot from this one too.

David Graeber, Pirate Enlightenment. This posthumously published book explores the mixed pirate-Malagasy communities in 17th century Madagascar, drawing on a handful of contemporary sources and later anthropological work on Madagascar (including Graeber’s own). The central concern is the same as in The Dawn of Everything: the existence of politics in premodern societies, in the sense of conscious, collective choices about how society should be organized; and the priority that many of these choices seemed to give to preserving freedom from personal domination or compulsion. I freely admit to being a big Graeber fan, but I was often quite irritated by the previous book; I think the picture is more convincingly drawn on the smaller canvas here.

A. J. P. Taylor, Bismarck: The Man and the Statesman. I’ve gotten into the habit of listening to audiobooks while cooking and cleaning, and I find that narrative history and biography works very well for that format. This is a perfectly serviceable biography, covering all the important events in Bismarck’s life and career, providing the historical and political context, and engaging, sometimes critically, with the existing literature, while keeping to a reasonable length.

I have to say, the biggest impression I came away with is that Bismarck must be one of the most boring people ever to have played such a central historical role. Every major decision he made was, in Taylor’s telling, purely tactical, oriented to whatever short-term problem he was most concerned about at the moment. (The crowning of Wilhelm as Emperor of Germany, far from being the secret agenda of the war with France, was, in this telling, a last-minute improvisation to ensure that Prussia’s North German allies didn’t drop out of the war.) Once the immediate crisis was dealt with, he just kind of sat around waiting for the next one. Bismarck was, evidently, an educated and intelligent person; but you get the impression that as the avatar of the Juncker class, he aspired to stupidity as a positive virtue.

Giuseppe Fiori, Antonio Gramsci: Life of a Revolutionary, translated by Tom Nairn. Another political biography I listened to as an audiobook. It’s an outstanding biography; written in the 1980s, when many of Gramsci’s contemporaries were still around, it draws on interviews by the author as well as the usual archival sources. A lot of the interest comes from the fact that Gramsci was located so precisely at one of the hinge-points of the 20th century; can you believe that he and Mussolini personally debated, on the floor of the Italian parliament, the class basis of fascism and whether it could be considered revolutionary? But Gramsci is also sort of the anti-Bismarck, not only in his personal background and the political project he helped lead, but also because he personally is a complex and fascinating individual who its delightful to spend time with, even in the mediated form of a biography. After I finished it, I had the thought: If a genie offered me an hour anywhere at any time in history, I’d like to spend it at Gramsci’s home in 1926, while he played with little Delio.

Alice Munro, Friend of My Youth. I read almost all of Munro’s books 15 or so years ago. I picked this collection up again after the story about her daughter’s abuse at the hands of her husband came out, to see if they read differently. They do, a bit. Mothers who abandon their children, or who overlook or ignore some danger to them, are a recurring theme in Munro’s work, and that hits a bit differently now. But mostly rereading them just convinced me, again, that Munro is the greatest contemporary writer of short fiction. This collection is one of her better ones, I think (there are always a few duds); it particularly highlights one of Munro’s other recurring themes, the presence but inaccessibility of the divine in the world, which we can perceive only as a kind of negative space around it, an absence or hole. (In this collection, the title story and “Pictures of the Ice” are two outstanding examples.) Anyway, I stopped watching movies by Woody Allen and Roman Polanski many years ago. And while I loved the Sandman comics, and my kids loved Fortunately the Milk (which I suppose should also be on this list), I wouldn’t bring a Neil Gaiman book into my home now. But reasons good or bad, I don’t feel that way about Alice Munro.

Eric Cline, 1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed. One astonishing thing you learn from books like this is how much writing survives from over three thousand years ago. It’s a like a whole other history before history, as far before ancient Rome as Rome is from us. What I like about this book in particular is how well it does the most important thing about writing about ancient civilizations — paying constant attention to how we know what we do know, and to how much we don’t and probably never will know. The book does not offer any definite answer its central mystery — why so many of the interconnected Mediterranean civilizations of the 2nd millennium BC collapsed around the same eponymous year — but to me that’s a virtue rather than a flaw.

Matt Strassler, Waves in an Impossible Sea. Strassler’s blog is the best thing I know on the internet for explaining fundamental physics to a general audience in a rigorous way. (His recent series on quantum interference is a tour de force.) So I was very excited when this book came out. I’m sorry to say I was rather disappointed. Strassler has an admirable commitment to avoiding shortcuts, or what he call “phybs”, and carefully works his way up from the most fundamental concepts (what is a field? what is a force?) in the most rigorous but nontechnical way. Unfortunately, clarity and precision come at the expense of breadth and depth; I can’t say I learned much of anything new from the book. Well, again, I am a religious reader of his blog; but then, you’d think that’s who his readers would be? Anyway, I definitely recommend his blog; if you’re interested in fundamental physics but don’t know anything about physics (I’m not sure how much overlap there is between those circles?) then you might also want to read the book.

Branko Milanovic, Visions of Inequality: From the French Revolution to the End of the Cold War. I read this survey of economists’ shifting views on income distribution because Tim Sahay and I were going to interview Branko about it, which ended up not happening. It’s an erudite and gracefully written book, as you would expect; but there’s something a bit off about it. As he acknowledges, income inequality as we think about it today was not really a concern for most of the authors he is writing about, particularly the earlier ones. So asking how they would answer our questions can lead to a weirdly off-center perspective, focusing myopically on the few instances where they discussed inequality in something like modern terms. It’s symptomatic that the chapter on Marx includes two full pages discussing whether Marx misquoted a single sentence from Gladstone on the distribution of wealth in England.

I’m a great admirer of Branko’s work, but this is not the book of his that I would recommend to people.

Jerusalem Demsas, On the Housing Crisis. I assigned this for a class I taught last fall on “the economics of New York”. I wanted something that would make the straightforward supply argument on housing costs, and this fit the bill. If you follow housing debates, you won’t find much new here. It’s a collection of her opinion pieces, mostly for The Atlantic; if you don’t have a subscription and can’t get past the paywall, I guess that might be a reason to buy this book.

Patrick Condon, Sick Cities: Disease, Race, Inequality and Urban Land.  I assigned this for the same unit in the same class, as the other side of the argument. The housing market is extremely segmented and landlords have a great deal of market power, so housing costs have nothing to do with supply — that’s the position here. (Though this particular book also has a lot about covid, working from home and so on.) Personally, I think both sides of this debate have valid and important points, which both of them then wrongly elevate into absolute truths. But that is a topic for another time.

John Scalzi – Old Man’s War and The Collapsing Empire. The 13 year old, who enjoys science fiction as well as history, picked up one of these. Yeah, they’re not suitable for a 13 year old. I ended up reading them both. I can’t say I liked them very much. A lot of familiar sci-fi tropes recycled, without anything much new being added that I can see. But I read them to the end despite not really liking them, so they evidently work on a basic what-happens-next level.

 

ETA: I forgot, I also read Mavis Gallant’s Paris Stories last year. They were good.

Previous editions:

2023 books

2020 books

2019 books

2017 Books

2016 books

2015 books

2013 books

2012 books I

2012 books II

2010 books I

2010 books II

Does the Fed Still Believe in the NAIRU?

(I write occasional opinion pieces for Barron’s. This one was published there in October 2024. My previous pieces are here.)

Not long ago, there was widespread agreement on how to think about monetary policy. When the Federal Reserve hikes, this story went, it makes credit more expensive, reducing spending on new housing and other forms of capital expenditure. Less spending means less demand for labor, which means higher unemployment. With unemployment higher, workers accept smaller wage gains, and slower wage growth is in turn passed on as slower growth in prices — that is, lower inflation. 

This story, which you still find in textbooks, has some strong implications. One is that there was a unique level of unemployment consistent with stable 2% inflation — what is often called the “nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment,” or NAIRU. 

The textbook story also assumes that  wage- and price-setting depend on expectations of future prices. So it’s critical for central banks to stabilize not only current inflation but beliefs about future inflation; this implies a commitment to head off any inflationary pressures even before prices accelerate. On the other hand, if there is a unique unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation, then the Fed’s mandate is dual only in name. In practice, full employment and price stability come to the same thing.

In the early 21st century, all this seemed sufficiently settled that fundamental debates over monetary policy could be treated as a question for history, not present-day economics.

The worldwide financial crisis of 2007-2009 unsettled the conversation. The crisis, and, even more, the glacial recovery that followed it, opened the door to alternative perspectives on monetary policy and inflation. Jerome Powell, who took office as Federal Open Market Committee chair in 2018, was more open than his predecessors to a broader vision of both the Fed’s goals and the means of achieving them. In the decade after the crisis, the idea of a unique, fundamentals-determined NAIRU came to seem less plausible.

These concerns were crystallized in the strategic review process the Fed launched in 2019. That review resulted, among other things, in a commitment to allow future overshooting of the 2% inflation target to make up for falling short of it. The danger of undershooting seemed greater than in the past, the Fed acknowledged.

One might wonder how much this represents a fundamental shift in the Fed’s thinking, and how much it was simply a response to the new circumstances of the 2010s. Had Fed decision-makers really changed how they thought about the economy?

Many of us try to answer these questions by parsing the publications and public statements of Fed officials. 

A fascinating recent paper by three European political scientists takes this approach and carries it to a new level. The authors—Tobias Arbogast, Hielke Van Doorslaer and Mattias Vermeiern—take 120 speeches by FOMC members from 2012 through 2022, and systematically quantify the use of language associated with defense of the NAIRU perspective, and with various degrees of skepticism toward it. Their work allows us to put numbers on the shift in Fed thinking over the decade. 

The paper substantiates the impression of a move away from the NAIRU framework in the decade after the financial crisis. By 2019-2020, references to the natural rate or to the need to preempt inflation had almost disappeared from the public statements of FOMC members, while expressions of uncertainty about the natural rate, of a wait-and-see attitude toward inflation, and concern about hysteresis (long-term effects of demand shortfalls) had become more common. The mantra of “data dependence,” so often invoked by Powell and others, is also part of the shift away from the NAIRU framework, since it implies less reliance on unobservable parameters of economic models. 

Just as interesting as the paper’s confirmation of a shift in Fed language, is what it says about how the shift took place. It was only in small part the result of changes in the language used by individual FOMC members. A much larger part of the shift is explained by the changing composition of the FOMC, with members more committed to the NAIRU gradually replaced by members more open to alternative perspectives. 

The contrast between 2014-2018 Chair Janet Yellen and Powell is particularly noteworthy in this respect. Yellen, by the paper’s metric, was among the most conservative members of the FOMC, most committed to the idea of a fixed NAIRU and the need to preemptively raise rates in response to a strong labor market. Powell is at the opposite extreme — along with former Vice Chair Lael Brainard, he is the member who has most directly rejected the NAIRU framework, and who is most open to the idea that tight labor markets have long-term benefits for income distribution and productivity growth. The paper’s authors suggest, plausibly, that Powell’s professional training as a lawyer rather than an economist means that he is less influenced by economic models; in any case, the contrast shows how insulated the politics of the Fed are from the larger partisan divide.

Does the difference in conceptual frameworks really matter? The article’s authors argue that it does, and I agree. FOMC members may sincerely believe that they are nonideological technicians, pragmatically responding to the latest data in the interests of society as a whole. But data and interests are always assessed through the lens of some particular worldview. 

To take one important example: In the NAIRU framework, the economy’s productive potential is independent of monetary policy, while inflation expectations are unstable. This implies that missing the full employment target has at worst short-term effects, while missing the inflation target grows more costly over time. NAIRU, in other words, makes a preemptive strike on any sign of inflation seem reasonable. 

On the other hand, if you think that hysteresis is real and important, and that inflation is at least sometimes a question of supply disruptions rather than unanchored expectations, then it may be the other way round. Falling short of the employment target may be the error with more lasting consequences. This is a perspective that some FOMC members, particularly Powell and Brainard, were becoming open to prior to the pandemic.

Perhaps even more consequential: if there is a well-defined NAIRU and we have at least a rough idea of what it is, then it makes sense to raise rates in response to a tight labor market, even if there is no sign, yet, of rising inflation. But if we don’t believe in the NAIRU, or at least don’t feel any confidence about its level, then it makes more sense to focus more on actual inflation, and less on the state of the labor market.

By the close of the 2010s, the Fed seemed to be well along the road away from the NAIRU framework. What about today? Was heterodox language on inflation merely a response to the decade of weak demand following the financial crisis, or did it represent a more lasting shift in how the Fed thinks about its mission?

On this question, the evidence is mixed. After inflation picked up in 2022, we did see some shift back to the older language at the Fed. You will not find, in Powell’s recent press conferences, any mention of the longer-term benefits of a tight labor market that he pointed to a few years ago. Hysteresis seems to have vanished from the lexicon. 

On the other hand, the past few years have also not been kind to those who see a tight link between the unemployment rate and inflation. When inflation began rising at the start of 2021, unemployment was still over 6%; two years later, when high inflation was essentially over, unemployment was below 4%. If the Fed had focused on the unemployment rate, it would have gotten inflation wrong both coming and going.

This is reflected in the language of Powell and other FOMC members. One change in central-bank thinking that seems likely to last, is a move away from the headline unemployment rate as a measure of slack. The core of the NAIRU framework is a tight link between labor-market conditions and inflation. But even if one accepts that link conceptually, there’s no reason to think that the official unemployment rate is the best measure of those conditions. In the future, we are likely to see discussion of a broader set of labor-market indicators.

The bigger question is whether the Fed will return to its old worldview where tight labor markets are seen as in themselves an inflationary threat. Or will it stick with its newer, agnostic and data-driven approach, and remain open to the possibility that labor markets can stay much stronger than we are used to, without triggering rising inflation? Will it return to a single-minded focus on inflation, or has there been a permanent shift to giving more independent weight on the full employment target? As we watch the Fed’s actions in coming months, it will be important to pay attention not just to what they do, but to why they say they are doing it.

 

FURTHER THOUGHTS: I really liked the Arbogast et al. paper, for reasons I couldn’t fully do justice to in the space of a column like this.

First of all, in addition to the new empirical stuff, it does an outstanding job laying out the intellectual framework within which the Fed operates. For better or worse, monetary policy is probably more reliant than most things that government does on a consciously  held set of theories.

Second, it highlights — in a way I have also tried to — the ways that hysteresis is not just a secondary detail, but fundamentally undermines the conceptual foundation on which conventional macroeconomic policy operates. The idea that potential output and long-run growth (two sides of the same coin) are determined prior to, and independent of, current (demand-determined) output, is what allows a basically Keynesian short-run framework to coexist with the the long-run growth models that are the core of modern macro. If demand has lasting effects on the laborforce, productivity growth and potential output, then that separation becomes untenable, and the whole Solow apparatus floats off into the ether. In a world of hysteresis, we no longer have a nice hierarchy of “fast” and “slow” variables; arguably there’s no economically meaningful long run at all.2

Arbogast and co don’t put it exactly like this, but they do emphasize that the existence of hysteresis (and even more reverse hysteresis, where an “overheating” economy permanently raises potential) fundamentally undermine the conventional distinction between the short run and the long run.

This leads to one of the central points of the paper, which I wish I’d been able to highlight more: the difference between what they call “epistemological problematization” of the NAIRU, that is doubts about how precisely we can know it and related “natural” parameters; and “ontological problematization,” or doubts that it is a relevant concept for policy at all. At a day to day operational level, the difference may not always be that great; but I think — as do the authors — that it matters a lot for the evolution of policy over longer horizons or in new conditions.

The difference is also important for those of us thinking and writing about the economy. The idea of some kind of “natural” or “structural” parameters, of a deeper model that abstracts from demand and money, deviations from which are both normatively bad and important only in the short term — this is an incubus that we need to dislodge if we want to move toward any realistic theorizing about capitalist economies. It substitutes an imaginary world with none of the properties of the world that matter for most of the questions we are interested — a toy train set to play with instead of trying to solve the very real engineering problems we face.

I appreciate the paper’s concluding agnosticism about how far the Fed has actually moved away form this framework. As I mentioned in the piece, I was struck by their finding that among the past decade’s FOMC members, Powell has moved the furthest away from NAIRU and the rest of it. If nothing else, it vindicates some of my own kind words about him in the runup to his reappointment.3

This is also, finally, an example of what empirical work in economics ought to look like.4 First, it’s frankly descriptive. Second, it asks a question which has a quantitative answer, with substantively interesting variation (across both time and FOMC members, in this case.) As Deirdre McCloskey stressed in her wonderful pamphlet The Secret Sins of Economics, the difference between answers with quantitative and qualitative answers is the difference between progressive social science and … whatever economics is.

What kind of theory would actually contribute to an … inquiry into the world? Obviously, it would be the kind of theory for which actual numbers can conceivably be assigned. If Force equals Mass times Acceleration then you have a potentially quantitative insight into the flight of cannon balls, say. But the qualitative theorems (explicitly advocated in Samuelson’s great work of 1947, and thenceforth proliferating endlessly in the professional journals of academic economics) don’t have any place for actual numbers.

A qualitative question, in empirical work, is a question of the form “are these statistical results consistent or inconsistent with this theoretical claim?” The answer is yes, or no. The specific numbers — coefficients, p-values, and of course the tables of descriptive statistics people rush through on their way to the good stuff — are not important or even meaningful. All that matters is whether the null has been rejected.

McCloskey, insists, correctly in my view, that this kind of work adds nothing to the stock of human knowledge. And I am sorry to say that it is just as common in heterodox work as in the mainstream.

To add to our knowledge of the world, empirical work must, to begin with, tell you something you didn’t know before you did it. “Successfully” confirming your hypothesis obviously fails this test. You already believed it! It also must yield particular factual claims that other people can make use of. In general, this means some number — it means answer a “how much” question and not jsut a “yes or no” question. And it needs to reveal variation in those quantities along some interesting dimension. Since there are no universal constants to uncover in social science, interesting results will always be about how something is bigger, or more important in one time, one country, one industry, etc. than in another. Which means, of course, that the object of any kind of empirical work should be a concrete historical development, something that happened at a specific time and place.

One sign of good empirical work is that there are lots of incidental facts that are revealed along the way, besides the central claim. As Andrew Gelman observed somewhere, in a good visualization, the observations that depart from the relationship you’re illustrating should be as informative as the ones that fit it.

This paper delivers that. Along with the big question of a long term shift, or not, in the Fed’s thinking, you can see other variation that may or may be relevant to the larger question but are interesting facts about the world in their own right. If, for example, you look at the specific examples of language they coded in each category, then a figure like shows lots of interesting fine-grained variation over time.

Also, in passing, I appreciate the fact that they coded the terms themselves and didn’t outsource the job to ChatGPT. I’ve seen a couple papers doing quantitative analysis of text, that use chatbots to classify it. I really hope that does not become the norm!

Anyway, it’s a great paper, which I highly recommend, both for its content and as a model for what useful empirical work in economics should look like.

 

2023 Books

Edward Biberman, Slow Curve, 1945.

Books I read in 2023. I’m probably forgetting some.

Geoffrey Ingham, The Nature of Money. One of the fundamental divides in thinking about money is whether we start from the commodity or the unit of account. Do we begin, logically and historically, with the idea of exchange and then bring in money, or do we start from an abstract unit of measurement which then, among other things, is used to value commodities? The latter view defines what’s known as chartalism; Ingham offers the most persuasive statement of the chartalist position that I know. The most visible (though, it seems to me, fading) contemporary version of chartalism is the one offered by Modern Mone(tar)y Theory. There’s a clear affinity between Ingham and MMT but also some important differences; taking Mitchell Innes rather than Knapp as its starting point, Ingham’s version emphasizes money as a measure of obligations in general, rather than taxes specifically.

Like the next five books on the list, I read this one in as I worked on Money and Things, and in conjunction with the “Alternative Perspectives on Money” course I taught this fall.

Lev Menand, The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis.  I am a big admirer of Menand’s writing on monetary policy and the Fed. He’s a good example of how many of the most interesting conversations around economics these days are happening in law schools. I am constantly pointing people to his short piece on the “The Fed’s Sole Mandate,” which does a brilliant job reframing debates around monetary policy. I would love to see that argument developed at book length. Unfortunately, this is not really that. The book falls a bit awkwardly between two sets of stools — between a general history of the Fed and a comment on pandemic-era interventions, on the one hand, and between a popularization and original argument on the other. I’m sympathetic – these are both tensions I also struggle with. (Despite some encouragement from me, Lev also has not been quite able to give up the idea of a definite quantity of money.) I will certainly continue to draw on and assign his work in the future, but I think I’ll look more to his law review articles rather than this book. 

David McNally, Blood and Money: War, Slavery, Finance, and Empire. I would also put this in the broad category of chartalism, again emphasizing the role of money as an abstract unit of measurement rather than as a specific commodity.  This is a more eclectic and Marx-influenced version, focusing on money as quantification as such rather than of obligations. The most importnat things being reduced to commensurable quantities, in McNally’s telling, are human bodies — for him, money is the obverse of slavery, and of coercive violence more broadly. The book’s title should be taken literally.

The historical material here makes an interesting complement to Ingham. Most chartalist writing, in my experience, draws from a relatively short list of historical parables — ancient Babylon, colonial Madagascar. Ingham mostly sticks to the canon, but McNally ranges more widely. As with many books of this kind (Graeber’s Debt is the notorious example) the analysis starts glitching a bit when the story reaches the modern world. It’s not surprising. When you are writing about a general topic like money or debt, there is nothing wrong with picking whatever particular examples from the vast palette of the past that work best for the picture you’re trying to paint. But when you are writing about recent history, you are stuck with the specific things that actually happened.

Stefan Eich, The Currency of Politics: The Political Theory of Money from Aristotle to Keynes. The subject of this book is the question — one which motivates so many debates about money — of how, and to what extent, the form and management of money shapes broader social relations. It’s the question of whether money is, in the broadest sense, neutral, or whether changes in the terms on which money is created can transform politics and relations of production. The book, to be clear, is not framed this way; it’s set up, rather as six distinct essays, on particular thinkers and milieus, from classical Athens through Locke, Fichte, Marx and Keynes to the “political theory of money after Bretton Woods.” As Colin Drumm suggests, the book is best understood (and perhaps read) backward. To make sense of current debates about money, we need to go back to the early 20th century Years of High Theory, and then back to the thinkers that influenced them, and on back to Aristotle. Personally, I learned the most from the Athens and Marx chapters; but the whole thing is very worth reading

Merijn Knibbe, Macroeconomic Measurement Versus Macroeconomic Theory.  This is a book-length struggle with a question dear to my heart, the disconnect  between the categories of economic theory and measurement. Concepts like output, employment, the price level or the capital stock can be defined unambiguously within a formal economic model. But when we use them to describe developments in the real world, their meaning depends on a whole host of specific decisions about what exactly to count, what to impute and where to draw various more or less arbitrary lines. The data we look at is highly sensitive to these choices —  a full third of US consumption, for instance, consists of non cash items like the notional rent paid by homeowners to themselves, services provided gratis by nonprofits and government, and the notional value of financial services provided by low-interest bank accounts. Mainstream economists — and, I’m afraid to say, many heterodox ones — are blissfully unconcerned with these choices. But it is impossible to make any meaningful statements about real economies except in the terms that they are actually observed.

Many economists will acknowledge this problem in principle but Knibbe’s book is a rare attempt to address it head on. It is brilliant, perceptive and original, but also digressive, a bit of a ramble. One of its strengths is the author’s less academic background — he has a deep knowledge of topics, like exactly how milk prices are set in the Netherlands, that are not taught in any economics program. A challenge for any book like this is how much work it takes to explain the intricate fantasies of orthodox theory as a prelude to dismantling them; I don’t know what the solution to this problem is, if one is going to write critically about economics at all.

I provided comments on early chapters of the book, and at one point we discussed coauthoring it. That didn’t happen, obviously, but he did just fine on his own.

Anitra Nelson, Marx on Money: The God of Commodities. The most thorough and convincing account of Marx’s (incomplete and sometimes contradictory) writing on money that I have read. I won’t attempt to summarize Nelson’s arguments here; perhaps I’ll do so in a future post.

Enzo Traverso, Fire and Blood: The European Civil War 1914-1945. This book presents itself as a history of Europe’s second thirty years war. It is organized not chronologically but thematically, around various concepts that structured what Traverso presents as fundamentally an intra-European rather than international conflict — dual power, the partisan, the trauma of industrial violence, the new legal concept of war crimes, and so on. At its heart is an effort to reclaim anti-fascism as positive political project. Resistance to fascism required, and called forth, a creative fusion of socialist and Enlightenment values. Antifascism, in Traverso’s telling, was not merely a negative reaction to right-wing authoritarianism. It was a “civil religion of humanity, democracy and socialism”; it was “a “shared ethos that, in a historical context that was exceptional and necessarily transitory, made it possible to hold together Christians and atheist Communists, liberals and collectivists.” Traverso amasses a great range of historical, artistic and literary material to flesh out this view of antifascism as a positive political program. Anti-fascism is not just resistance to movement in the fascist direction; it is pressure for movement  away from the status quo in the other direction. It’s a timely reminder that one cannot effectively defend democratic values and practices where they already exist without also fighting to extend them where they currently do not. 

This is very much an intellectual history — personally, I wouldn’t have minded if Traverso had included a few less reproductions of paintings and introduced some quantitative material. Its antagonists are liberal historians — Francois Furet in particular — who see “the West” following a steady path toward liberal democracy as a kind of technical progress, with the violent conflicts between Left and Right as a friction or distraction. Traverso’s argument – not stated in so many words, but the overarching theme of the book — is that there was no technological inevitability to universal suffrage, civil liberties or the rest of it. Human progress, such as it is, is the result of active struggle. The battle against fascism yielded something quite different from a  straight line projection from the years before 1914. 

Luciano Canfora, Democracy in Europe. Another book by an Italian historian, developing many of the same themes as Traverso, though on a broader canvass. The central argument is that if democracy means “rule by the people,” then we should think of this not as an institution but an event, as the rare episodes in which the propertyless majority are able to collectively exercise power against the interests of the rich. Democracy, in his words, means “the temporary ascendancy of the poorer classes in the course of an endless struggle for equality”. Elections with broad suffrage are at best an enabling condition of democracy, not a definition of it. They create an arena in which the mass of people may sometimes be mobilized if the conditions are right. As Friedrich Engels put it, elections are important because they offer “a means to make contact with the masses where they are still distant from us,” not so much as a direct route to power. 

By the late 19th century, Engels believed, democratic politics offered an open road toward socialism. In Canfora’s view, however, he underestimated the ability of elites to mobilize mass support for their own programs. The development of mass political participation in the early 20th century owed as much, he argues, to efforts by conservative government to inoculate the population against socialism, as to any advance of democratic values. Conservatives were nonetheless hostile to universal suffrage right down to World War One. The book quotes the British writer George Cornwall Lewis urging that “the attempt to attain perfect equality in … the powers of government seems … as absurd as the attempt to attain perfect equality in the distribution of property.” Canfora accepts this equivalence but turns it around — sustained equality in government has never been compatible with concentrated property ownership. Historically, expansion of formal democracy was either a step toward broader social equality, or a defense against it.

Like Traverso, Canfora emphasizes how “antifascism was widened from a negative concept — rejection — to a positive one. … the forces that had fought fascism … could by definition transform society in a progressive direction.” He sees a fundamental parallel between developments in eastern and western Europe after war. On both sides, the upheavals of war and and popular mobilizations created new opening for demands from the masses. In the immediate postwar period, governments gave ground to pressure from below both substantively and in terms of public participation; but as they became more established, genuine popular involvement was displaced by self-confirming legality. The relationship of the US to Italy was not fundamentally different from that of the USSR to Poland or Hungary, even if military intervention was only prepared and not carried out. To drive this point home, he notes that it was Churchill, not Stalin, who proposed the division of Europe into spheres of influence; while the latter, for his part, urged an acceptance of liberal norms by communists in Western Europe.

Moving to the present, Canfora firmly rejects the idea that the countries of “the West” are democratic simply by virtue of their electoral arrangements. At the same time he insists that changes to electoral systems are important for either narrowing or widening the possibilities for substantive democracy.  In particular, he sees the shift from proportional representation to single-member districts or hybrid systems (as occurred in both France and Italy in recent decades) as a way of closing off space for democracy. In his view, steps away from proportional representation are no different from outright restrictions of the franchise. They “combine the electoral principle … with the reality of the protected ascendancy of the … upper classes.”

Rebecca Karl, Mao Zedong and China in the Twentieth-Century World: A Concise History. This is a sympathetic but not uncritical account of Mao’s life and the surrounding history. One of the book’s big virtues — besides providing the basic narrative of events that I knew much less about than I should — is that its perspective is always the situation and context in which Mao himself operated. It tries to understand why he made the choices he did in the circumstances that he faced. This is partly a matter of how the book is written, but it also requires the writer (and reader) to be able to imagine themselves as part of the revolutionary project Mao was engaged in. 

I learned a great deal from this book. Here are a few general points that stand out. First,  Mao’s formative political experiences involved China’s political disintegration and subordination to outside powers and, interestingly, the subordination of women in the traditional Chinese family (the subject of his first significant political writings.) His embrace of class politics and Marxism came afterwards, as a response to the practical problems of national independence and revival. (And to the savage repression by the nationalists.) Second, despite being an early leader of the Communist Party, he was, in Karl’s telling, almost constantly in conflict with it. He never had the unquestioned  authority of a Stalin, and for much of the period after 1960 or so he was effectively excluded from day to day leadership. The cult of personality — the Little Red Book and so on — were real enough, but they reflected relative marginalization rather than dominance; they arose from, on the one side, his efforts to pressure from the outside a government he no longer dominated, and from the other, the Party’s efforts to claim his legacy even while rejecting his positions substantively. Conversely, the “reforms” after his death don’t represent a repudiation of the Revolution so much as a reassertion of tendencies that were there all along. Third, Mao’s worst mistakes were in large part overreactions to correctly perceived problems with the Soviet model. The Great Leap Forward — disastrous as it was — is in no way comparable to the great famines under Stalin. It was the result rather of a search for a form of industrialization that would not favor the cities at the expense of the peasants. The problem was a breakdown in the systems of coordination, communication and transport rather than — as under Stalin — a systematic extraction of grain from the countryside. The Cultural Revolution, meanwhile, came from the conflicts between Mao and the party leadership mentioned earlier — it was intended by Mao as a revolution against the party,  as an effort to prevent the consolidation of a new ruling class or stratum as he believed had happened in the USSR. 

These broad brush summaries don’t do justice to the book, which is much more concrete and historically grounded. One question that it does not answer, however — that it does not even pose, given its choice to write largely from Mao’s own perspective — is, how and to what extent did the Chinese revolution lay the groundwork for China’s astonishing success — maybe the greatest in history — as a late industrializer. (Isabella Weber’s book, while also very good, only addresses a small part of this question.) But I still found it extremely informative and worth reading. One other virtue: it is very short. I would love to see more books in this format. There are a lot of big topics on which I would be happy to read 150 pages, but probably would not manage 700. 

Fintan O’Toole, We Don’t Know Ourselves: A Personal History of Modern Ireland.  A charming and very readable first-person account of Ireland since 1960, seamlessly interweaving historical and autobiographic material. When I picked this book up (at The Lofty Pigeon, a lovely new bookstore in my corner of Brooklyn) I knew a bit about the Irish war of independence and of course about the euro-era financial bubble and crisis, but but not much about the period in between. It’s a fascinating  story — 20th century Ireland has to be one of the outstanding cases of cultural transformation in just a generation or two, from a closed semi-theocracy to a fully “modern” country, for better or worse. O’Toole has an appealing ambivalence about this transformation. He is unflinching in his descriptions of the stifling cruelty of mid-century Irish schools and the treatment of women who violated sexual norms; it’s interesting how, in his telling even features of this society that might seem appealing — big multi-generational families with neighbors constantly present — could seem oppressive to those living in it. But neither does he whitewash the Irish modernization project or the politicians who led it. 

Edward Burrows and Mike Wallace, Gotham. A massive, comprehensive history of New York from the first European arrival to consolidation in 1898. I consumed this as an audiobook intermittently over the past year or so. Its episodic structure works well in that format, though not so much its profusion of names, dates, and places. (Someone should make a geographic concordance from it, if there isn’t one.)  What is there to say about it? If you want to learn about the history of New York City, this is the book. 

Adam Hochschild, American Midnight: The Great War, a Violent Peace, and Democracy’s Forgotten Crisis.  A history of US politics and political repression in the period around and immediately after World War One. As Hochschild makes clear, nothing in Donald Trump’s dreams comes close to the institutionalized racism, nativism and criminalization of dissent under Woodrow Wilson. If you’ve read some labor history, you won’t be shocked at the stories of the violent suppression of the IWW. But what about the movie director sentenced to four years in prison for making a film about the American Revolution that depicted the British in too negative a light? Or the Swiss-born orchestra conductor whose lynching on suspicion of German sympathies was hailed by The Washington Post as a “healthful and wholesome awakening” of patriotic sentiment? Or the mass roundups of young men suspected of evading the draft by vigilante squads? It’s an important reminder that fascism is a long-established and central strand in American politics, not something introduced by Trump or Newt Gingrich. 

Johannes Krause and Thomas Trappe, A Short History of Humanity: A New History of Old Europe.  I enjoy books about ancient history and paleantology, especially ones that, like this one, are as much about how we know what we know, as about what we do know. The specific focus here is the new information from the reconstruction of genomes from ancient human remains, something that has only recently become possible; one of the authors is a pioneer in the technique. There is a rather serious problem, which is visible in the juxtaposition of the title and subtitle: Europe and humanity are quite different things. (The authors are hardly the only ones to have trouble remembering this.) Still, it’s fascinating how much detail is now known about ancient population movements. 

Thomas Lin, ed., Alice and Bob Meet the Wall of Fire. Essays from online science magazine Quanta. I enjoy their podcasts, but this collection was underwhelming. This is the one book on this list that I do not recommend.

Abdelrahman Munif, The Trench and Variations of Night and Day. These are the second and third novels in the Cities of Salt trilogy telling the story of a fictional gulf monarchy over the first half of the 20th century. (At least, it’s a trilogy in English; I believe there are further volumes that haven’t been translated.) I wrote a bit about these books at the end of this post.

Annie Ernaux, A Man’s Place. A short, beautiful book about the author’s father, about class, education and the the distance between the center and the periphery, and about the irreversible passage of time. It’s one of those in-between-genres books that gets shelved with the novels in France and with memoirs in the United States.

Roberto Bolaño, By Night in Chile. An allegory of the position of intellectuals under right-wing dictatorships, how you simultaneously know and don’t know what is going on — metaphorically, but in the allegory literally — beneath the floors of your literary get-togethers.  It’s the story of a well-meaning priest, “the most liberal member of Opus Dei in Chile,” who, improbably … well, I won’t spoil it.

Natalie Ginsburg, The Dry Heart; Happiness, as Such; and Voices in the Evening. Sad, occasionally political, and very occasionally violent family conflicts in small-town Italy from the 1940s through the 1960s. They are good.

Previous editions:

2020 books

2019 books

2017 Books

2016 books

2015 books

2013 books

2012 books I

2012 books II

2010 books I

2010 books II

Eich on Marx on Money

I’ve been using some of Stefan Eich’s The Currency of Politics in the graduate class I’m teaching this semester. (I read it last year, after seeing a glowing mention of it by Adam Tooze.) This week, we talked about his chapter on Marx, which reminded me that I wrote some notes on it when I first read it. I thought it might be worthwhile turning them into a blogpost, incorporating some points that came out in the discussion in today’s class.

Eich begins with one commonly held idea of Marx’s views of money: that he was “a more or less closeted adherent of metallism who essentially accepted … gold-standard presumptions” — specifically, that the relative value of commodities is prior to whatever we happen to use for units of account and payments, that the value of gold (or whatever is used for money) is determined just like that of any other commodity, and that changes to the monetary system can’t have any effects on real activity (or at least, only disruptive ones). Eich’s argument is that while Marx’s theoretical views on money were more subtle and complex than this, he did share the operational conclusion that monetary reform was a dead end for political action. In Eich’s summary, while at the time of the Manifesto Marx still believed in a public takeover of the banking system as part of a socialist program, by the the 1860s he had come to believe that “any activist monetary policy to alter the level of investment, let alone … shake off exploitation, was futile.”

Marx’s arguments on money of course developed in response to the arguments of Proudhon and similar socialists like Robert Owen. For these socialists (in Eich’s telling; but it seems right to me) scarcity of gold and limits on credit were “obstacles to reciprocal exchange,” preventing people from undertaking all kinds of productive activity on a cooperative basis and creating conditions of material scarcity and dependence on employers. “A People’s Bank,” as Eich writes channeling Proudhon, “was the only way to guarantee the meaningfulness of the right to work.” Ordinary people are capable of doing much more socially useful (and remunerative) work than whatever jobs they were offered. But under the prevailing monopoly of credit, we have no way to convert our capacity to work into access to the means of production we would need to realize it.

Why, we can imagine Proudhon asking, do you need to work for a boss? Because he owns the factory. And why does he own the factory? Is it because only he had the necessary skills, dedication, and ambition to establish it? No, of course not. It’s because only he had the money to pay for it. Democratize money, and you can democratize production.

Marx turned this around. Rather than money being the reason why a small group of employers control the means of production, it is, under capitalism, simply an expression of that fact. And if we are going to attribute this control to a prior monopoly, it should be to land and the productive forces of nature, not money. The capitalist class inherits its coercive power from the landlord side of its family tree, not the banker side.

In Marx’s view, Proudhon had turned the fundamental reality of life under capitalism — that people are free to exchange their labor power for any other commodity — into an ideal. He attributed the negative  consequences of organizing society around market exchange to monopolies and other deviations from it. (This is a criticism that might also be leveled against many subsequent reformers, including the ”market socialists” of our own time.) 

That labor time is the center of gravity for prices is not a universal fact about commodities. It is a tendency — only a tendency — under capitalism specifically, as a result of several concrete social developments. First, again, production is carried out by wage labor. Second, wage labor is deskilled, homogenized, proletarianized. The equivalence of one hour of anyone’s labor for one hour of anyone else’s is a sociological fact reflecting that fact that workers really are interchangeable. Just as important, production must be carried out for profit, because capitalists compete both in the markets for their product and for the means of production. It is the objective need for them to produce at the lowest possible cost, or else cease being capitalists, that ensures that production is carried out with the socially necessary labor time and no more.

The equivalence of commodities produced by the same amount of labor is the result of proletarianization on the one side and the hard budget constraint on the other. The compulsion of the market, enforced by the “artificial” scarcity of money, is not an illegitimate deviation from the logic of equal exchange but its precondition. The need for money plays an essential coordinating function. This doesn’t mean that no other form of coordination is possible. But if you want to dethrone money-owners from control of the production process, you have to first create another way to organize it.

So one version of Marx’s response to Proudhon might go like this. In a world where production was not organized on capitalist lines, we could still have market exchange of various things. But the prices would be more or less conventional. Productive activity, on the other side, would be embedded in all kinds of other social relationships. We would not have commodities produced for sale by abstract labor, but particular use values produced by particular forms of activity carried out by particular people. Given the integration of production with the rest of life, there would be no way to quantitatively compare the amount of labor time embodied in different objects of exchange; and even if there were, the immobility of embedded labor means there would be no tendency for prices to adjust in line with those quantities. The situation that Proudhon is setting up as the ideal — prices corresponding to labor time, which can be freely exchanged for commodities of equal value — reflects a situation where labor is already proletarianized. Only when workers have lost any social ties to their work, and labor has been separated from the rest of life, does labor time become commensurable. 

In the real world, the owners of the means of production have harnessed all our collective efforts into the production of commodities by wage labor for sale in the market, in order to accumulate more means of production – that is to say, capital. In this world, and only in this world, quantitative comparisons in terms of money must reflect the amount of labor required for production. Changes to the money system cannot change these relative values. At the same time, it’s only the requirement to produce for the market that ensures that one hour of labor really is equivalent to any other. Proudhon’s system of labor chits, in which anyone who spent an hour doing something could get a claim on the product of an hour of anyone else’s labor, would destroy the equivalence that the chits are supposed to represent. (A similar criticism might be made of job guarantee proposals today.)

For the mature Marx, money is merely “the form of appearance of the measure of value which is immanent in commodities, namely labor time.” There is a great deal to unpack in a statement like this. But the conclusion that changes in the quantity or form of money can have no effect on relative prices does indeed seem to be shared with the gold-standard orthodoxy of his time (and of ours). 

The difference is that for Marx, that quantifiable labor time was not a fact of nature. People’s productive activities become uniform and homogeneous only as work is proletarianized, deskilled, and organized in pursuit of profit. It is not a general fact about exchange. Money might be neutral in the sense of not entering into the determination of relative prices, which are determined by labor time. But the existence of money is essential for there to be relative prices at all. The possibility of transforming authority over particular production processes into claims on the social product in general is a precondition for generalized wage labor to exist. 

While Marx does look like commodity money theorist in some important ways, he shared with the credit-money theorists, and greatly developed, the  idea — mostly implicit until then — that the productive capacities of a society are not something that exist prior to exchange, but develop only through the generalization of monetary exchange. Much more than earlier writers, or than Keynes and later Keynesians, he foregrounded the qualitative transformation of society that comes with the organization of production around the pursuit of money. 

You could get much of this from any number of writers on Marx. What is a bit more distinctive in the Eich chapter is the links he makes between the theory and Marx’s political engagement. When Marx was writing his critique of Proudhon’s monetary-reform proposals in the 1840s, Eich observes, he and Engels  still believed that public ownership of the banks was an important plank in the socialist program. Democratically-controlled banks would “make it possible to regulate the credit system in the interest of the people as a whole, and … undermine the dominion of the great money men. Further, by gradually substituting paper money for gold and silver coin, the universal means of exchange … will be cheapened.” At this point they still held out the idea that public credit could both alleviate monetary bottlenecks on production and be a move toward the regulation of production “according to the general interest of society as represented in the state.”

By the 1850s, however, Marx had grown skeptical of the relevance of money and banking for a socialist program. In a letter to Engels, he wrote that the only way forward was to “cut himself loose from all this ‘money shit’”; a few years later, he said, in an address to the First International, that “the currency question has nothing at all to do with the subject before us.” In the Grundrisse he asked rhetorically, “Can the existing relations of production and the relations of distribution which correspond to them be revolutionized by a change in the instrument of circulation…? Can such a transformation be undertaken without touching the existing relations of production and social relations which rest on them?” The answer, obviously, is No.

The reader of Marx’s published work might reasonably come away with something like this understanding of money: Generalized use of money is a precondition of wage labor, and leads to qualitative transformations of human life. But control over money is not the source of capitalists’ power, and the logic of capitalism doesn’t depend on the specific workings of the financial system. To understand the sources of conflict and crises under capitalism, and its transformative power and development over time, one should focus on the organization of production and the hierarchical relationships within the workplace. Capitalism is essentially a system of hierarchical control over labor. Money and finance are at best second order. 

Eich doesn’t dispute this, as a description of what Marx actually he wrote.. But he argues that this rejection of finance as a site of political action was based on the specific conditions of the times. Today, though, the power and salience of organized labor has diminished. Meanwhile, central banks are more visible as sites of power, and the allocation of credit is a major political issue. A Marx writing now, he suggests, might take a different view on the value of monetary reform to a socialist program. I’m not sure, though, if this is a judgment that many people inspired by Marx would share. 

Inflation Came Down, and Team Transitory Was Right

Line goes down, and up. Last week, I wrote out a post arguing that the inflation problem is largely over, and the Fed had little to do with it. Yesterday, the new CPI numbers were released and they showed a sharp rise in inflation — a 4 percent rate over the past three months, compared with 2 percent when I wrote the piece.

Obviously, I’m not thrilled about this. It would be easier to make the arguments I would like to make if inflation were still coming down. But it doesn’t really change the story. Given that the spike last month is entirely energy, with growth in other prices continuing to slow, almost everyone seems to agree that it has nothing to do with demand conditions in the US, or anything the Fed has been doing or ought to do.

Here is an updated version of the main figure from the piece. You can see the spike at the far right – that’s the numbers released yesterday. You can also see that it is all energy costs (the pink bar). Everything else is still coming down.

Here is a table presenting the same data, but now comparing the high inflation of June 2021-June2022 with the lower inflation of the past yer. The last column shows how much each category has contributed to the change in inflation between the two periods. As you can see, the fall in inflation is all about goods, especially energy and cars. Services, which is where you’d expect to see any effects of a softening labor market, have not so far contributed to disinflation.

One thing the figure brings out is that we have not simply had a rise and then fall in inflation over the past couple of years. We’ve had several distinct episodes of rising prices. The first, in the second half of 2020, was clearly driven by reopening and pandemic-related shifts in spending. (One point Arjun and I make in our supply-constraints article is that big shifts in the composition of spending lead to higher prices on average.) The next episode, in the second half of 2021, was all about motor vehicles. The third episode, in the first half of 2022, was energy and food prices, presumably connected to the war in Ukraine. Finally, in later 2022 and early this year, measured inflation was all driven by rising housing costs.

Even though they may all show up as increases in the CPI, these are really four distinct phenomena. And none of them looks like the kind of inflation the Fed claims to be fighting. Energy prices may continue to rise, or they may not — I really have no idea.  But either way, that’s not a sign of an overheated economy.

It’s the supply side. Of course I am not the only one making this point. Andrew Elrod had a nice piece in Jacobin recently, making many of the same arguments. I especially like his conclusion, which emphasizes that this is not just a debate about inflation and monetary policy. If you accept the premise that spending in the economy has been too high, and workers have too much bargaining power, that rules out vast swathes of the progressive political program. This is something I also have written about.

Mike Konczal makes a similar argument in a new issue brief, “Inflation is Down. It’s a Supply-Side Story.” He looks at two pieces of evidence on this: different regression estimates of the Phillips curve relationship between unemployment and inflation, and second, expenditure and price changes across various categories of spending. I admit I don’t find the regression analysis very compelling. What it says is that a model that used past inflation to predict future inflation fit the data pretty well for 2020-2022, but over predicted inflation this year. I’m not sure this tells us much except that inflation was rising in the first period and falling in the second.

The more interesting part, to me, is the figure below. This shows quantities and prices for a bunch of different categories of spending. What’s striking about this is the negative relationship for goods (which, remember, is where the disinflation has come from.)

It is literally economics 101 that when prices and quantities move together, that implies a shift in demand; when they move in opposite directions, that implies a shift in supply. To put it more simply, if auto prices are falling even while people are buying more automobiles, as they have been, then reduced demand cannot be the reason for the price fall.

Larry Summers, in a different time, called this an “elementary signal identification point”: the sign the price increases are driven by demand is that “output and inflation together are above” their trend or previous levels. (My emphasis.) Summers’ point in that 2012 article (coauthored with Brad DeLong) was that lower output could not, in itself, be taken as a sign of a fall in potential. But the exact same logic says that a rise in prices cannot, by itself, be attributed to faster demand growth. The demand story requires that rising prices be accompanied by rising spending. As Mike shows, the opposite is the case.

In principle, one might think that the effect of monetary policy on inflation would come through the exchange rate. In this story, higher interest rates make a country’s assets more attractive to foreign investors, who bid up the price of its currency. A stronger currency makes import prices cheaper in terms of the domestic currency, and this will lower measured inflation. This is not a crazy story in principle, and it does fit a pattern of disinflation concentrated in traded goods rather than services. As Rémi Darfeuil points out in comments, some people have been crediting the Fed with US disinflation via this channel. The problem for this story is that the dollar is up only about 4 percent since the Fed started hiking — hardly enough to explain the scale of disinflation. The deceleration in import prices is clearly a matter of global supply conditions — it is also seen in countries whose currencies have gotten weaker (as the linked figure itself shows).

Roaring out of recession. I’ve given a couple video presentations on these questions recently. One, last Friday, was for Senate staffers. Amusingly —to me anyway — the person they had to speak on this topic  last year was Jason Furman. Who I imagine had a rather different take. The on Monday I was on a panel organized by the Groundwork Collaborative, comparing the economic response to the pandemic to the response to the financial crisis a decade ago. That one is available on zoom, if you are interested. The first part is a presenation by Heather Boushey of the Council of Economic Advisors (and an old acquaintance of mine from grad school). The panel itself begins about half an hour in, though Heather’s presentation is of course also worth listening to.

 

[Thanks to Caleb Crain for pointing out a mistake in an earlier version of this post.]

Keynes on Newton and the Methods of Science

I’ve just been reading Keynes’ short sketches of Isaac Newton in Essays in Biography. (Is there any topic he wasn’t interesting on?) His thesis is that Newton was not so much the first modern scientist as “the last of the magicians” — “a magician who believed that by intense concentration of mind on traditional hermetics and revealed books he could discover the secrets of nature and the course of future events, just as by the pure play of mind on a few facts of observation he had unveiled the secrets of the heavens.”

The two pieces are fascinating in their own right, but they also crystallized something I’ve been thinking about for a while about the relationship between the methods and the subject matter of the physical sciences.

It’s no secret that Newton had an interest in the occult, astrology and alchemy and so on. Keynes’ argument is that this was not a sideline to his “scientific” work, but was his project, of which his investigations into mathematics and the physical world formed just a part. In Keynes’ words,

He looked on the whole universe and all that is in it as a riddle, as a secret which could be read by applying pure thought to … mystic clues which God had laid about the world to allow a sort of philosopher’s treasure hunt to the esoteric brotherhood. He believed that these clues were to be found partly in the evidence of the heavens and in the constitution of elements… but also partly in certain papers and traditions … back to the original cryptic revelation in Babylonia. …

In Keynes’ view — supported by the vast collection of unpublished papers Newton left after his death, which Keynes made it his mission to recover for Cambridge — Newton looked for a mathematical pattern in the movements of the planets in exactly the same way as one would look for the pattern in a coded message or a secret meaning in a ancient text. Indeed, Keynes says, Newton did look in the same way for secret messages in ancient texts, with the same approach and during the same period in which he was developing calculus and his laws of motion.

There was extreme method in his madness. All his unpublished works on esoteric and theological matters are marked by careful learning, accurate method and extreme sobriety of statement. They are just as sane as the Principia, if their whole matter and purpose were not magical. They were nearly all composed during the same twenty-five years of his mathematical studies. 

Even in his alchemical research, which superficially resembled modern chemistry, he was looking for secret messages. He was, says Keynes, “almost entirely concerned, not in serious experiment, but in trying to read the riddle of tradition, to find meaning in cryptic verses, to imitate the alleged but largely imaginary experiments of the initiates of past centuries.”

There’s an interesting parallel here to Foucault’s discussion in The Order of Things of 16th century comparative anatomy. When someone like Pierre Belon carefully compares the structures of a bird’s skeleton to a human one, it superficially resembles modern biology, but really “belongs to the same analogical cosmography as the comparison between apoplexy and tempests,” reflecting the idea that man “stands in proportion to the heavens just as he does to animals and plants.”

Newton’s “scientific” work was, similarly, an integral part of his search for ancient secrets and, perhaps, for him, not the most important part. Keynes approvingly quotes the words that George Bernard Shaw (drawing on some of the same material) puts in Newton’s mouth:

There are so many more important things to be worked at: the transmutations of matter, the elixir of life, the magic of light and color, above all the secret meaning of the Scriptures. And when I should be concentrating my mind on these I find myself wandering off into idle games of speculation about numbers in infinite series, and dividing curves into indivisibly short triangle bases. How silly!

None of this, Keynes insists, is to diminish Newton’s greatness as a thinker or the value of his achievements. His scientific accomplishments flowed from this same conviction that the world was a puzzle that would reveal some simple, logical, in retrospect obvious solution if one stared at it long enough. His greatest strength was his power of concentration, his ability to

hold a problem in his mind for hours and days and weeks until it surrendered to him its secret. Then being a supreme mathematical technician he could dress it up… for purposes of exposition, but it was his intuition which was pre-eminent … The proofs … were not the instrument of discovery. 

There is the story of how he informed Halley of one of his most fundamental discoveries of planetary motion. ‘Yes,’ replied Halley, ‘but how do you know that? Have you proved it?’ Newton was taken aback—’Why, I’ve known it for years,’ he replied. ‘ If you’ll give me a few days, I’ll certainly find you a proof of it’—as in due course he did. 

This is a style of thinking that we are probably all familiar with — the conviction that a difficult problem must have an answer, and that once we see it in a flash of insight we’ll know that it’s right. (In movies and tv shows, intellectual work is almost never presented in any other way.) Some problems really do have answers like this. Many, of course, do not. But you can’t necessarily know in advance which is which. 

Which brings me to the larger point I want to draw out of these essays. Newton was not wrong to think that if the motion of the planets could be explained by a simple, universal law expressible in precise mathematical terms, other, more directly consequential questions might be explained the same way. As Keynes puts it,

He did read the riddle of the heavens. And he believed that by the same powers of his introspective imagination he would read the riddle of the Godhead, the riddle of past and future events divinely fore-ordained, the riddle of the elements…, the riddle of health and of immortality. 

It’s a cliché that economists suffer from physics envy. There is definitely some truth to this (though how much the object of envy resembles actual physics I couldn’t say.)  The positive content of this envy might be summarized as follows: The techniques of physical sciences have yielded good results where they have been applied, in physics, chemistry, etc. So we should expect similar good results if we apply the same techniques to human society. If we don’t have a hard science of human society, it’s simply because no one has yet done the work to develop one. (Economists, it’s worth noting, are not alone in believing this.)

In Robert Solow’s critical but hardly uniformed judgement,

the best and the brightest in the profession proceed as if economics is the physics of society. There is a single universal model of the world. It only needs to be applied. You could drop a modern economist from a time machine … at any time in any place, along with his or her personal computer; he or she could set up in business without even bothering to ask what time and which place. In a little while, the up-to-date economist will have maximized a familiar-looking present-value integral, made a few familiar log-linear approximations, and run the obligatory familiar regression. 

It’s not hard to find examples of this sort of time-machine economics. David Romer’s widely-used macroeconomics textbook, for example, offers pre-contact population density in Australia and Tasmania (helpfully illustrated with a figure going back to one million BC) as an illustration of endogenous growth theory. Whether you’re asking about GDP growth next year, the industrial revolution or the human population in the Pleistocene, it’s all the same equilibrium condition.

Romer’s own reflections on economics methodology (in an interview with Snowdon and Vane) are a perfect example of what I am talking about. 

As a formal or mathematical science, economics is still very young. You might say it is still in early adolescence. Remember, at the same time that Einstein was working out the theory of general relativity in physics, economists were still talking to each other using ambiguous words and crude diagrams. 

In other words, people who studied physical reality embraced precise mathematical formalism early, and had success. The people who studied society stuck with “ambiguous words and crude diagrams” and did not. Of course, Romer says, that is now being corrected. But it’s not surprising that with its late start, economics hasn’t yet produced as definite and useful knowledge as the physical science have.  

This is where Newton comes in. His occult interests are a perfect illustration of why the Romer view gets it backward. The same techniques of mathematical formalization, the same effort to build up from an axiomatic foundation, the same search for precisely expressible universal laws, have been applied to the whole range of domains right from the beginning — often, as in Newton’s case, by the same people. We have not, it seems to me, gained useful knowledge of orbits and atoms because that’s where the techniques of physical science happen to have been applied. Those techniques have been consistently applied there precisely because that’s where they turned out to yield useful knowledge.

In the interview quoted above, Romer defends the aggregate production function (that “drove Robinson to distraction”) and Real Business Cycle theory as the sort of radical abstraction science requires. You have “to strip things down to their bare essentials” and thoroughly grasp those before building back up to a more realistic picture.

There’s something reminiscent of Newton the mystic-scientist in this conviction that things like business cycles or production in a capitalist economy have an essential nature which can be grasped and precisely formalized without all the messy details of observable reality. It’s tempting to think that there must be one true signal hiding in all that noise. But I think it’s safe to say that there isn’t. As applied to certain physical phenomena, the idea that apparently disparate phenomena are united by a single beautiful mathematical or geometric structure has been enormously productive. As applied to business cycles or industrial production, or human health and longevity, or Bible exegesis, it yields nonsense and crankery. 

In his second sketch, Keynes quotes a late statement of Newton’s reflecting on his own work:

I do not know what I may appear to the world; but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy, playing on the sea-shore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me. 

I’m sure this quote is familiar to anyone who’s read anything about Newton, but it was new and striking to me. One way of reading it as support for the view that Newton’s scientific work was, in his mind, a sideshow to the really important inquiries which he had set aside. But another way is as a statement of what I think is arguably the essence of a scientific mindset – the willingness to a accept ignorance and uncertainty. My friend Peter Dorman once made an observation about science that has always stuck with me – that what distinguishes scientific thought is the disproportionate priority put on avoiding Type I errors (accepting a false claim) over avoiding Type II errors (rejecting a true claim). Until an extraordinary degree of confidence can be reached, one simply says “I don’t know”.

It seems to me that if social scientists are going to borrow something from the practices of Newton and his successors,  it shouldn’t be an aversion to “ambiguous words,” the use calculus or geometric proofs, or the formulation of universal mathematical laws. It should be his recognition of the vast ocean of our ignorance. We need to accept that on most important questions we don’t know the answers and probably cannot know them. Then maybe we can recognize the small pebbles of knowledge that are accessible to us.

2020 books

(I wrote this list at the beginning of 2021 but for some reason never posted it. I figured it’s worth putting up now – they’re all still good books.)

Books I read in 2020. None of them were life-changing, but several were very good.

Weather, by Jenny Offill. A small graceful novel about middle-class life against the background of climate change. 

The Mirror and the Light, by Hilary Mantel. Final installment of the Thomas Cromwell trilogy. Better than the second, not as good as the first, in my opinion. Gripping as the others as a story, and shifts our perspective on the central character in some interesting ways, but much of the most interesting history of the period (like the Pilgrimage of Grace) happens oddly offstage, and the central conflict between Cromwell and Henry VIII is never properly motivated. Was Archbishop Cranmer’s protege really a true-believing Protestant reformer all along?

Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to Do about It, by Morten Jerven. GDP and other national accounts numbers for poor countries (and for the distant past everywhere) are bullshit. Sorry but it’s true. I read this because I was thinking of assigning it; I ultimately didn’t, but it’s a good book.

The Causality Mixtape, by Scott Cunningham. Another one I read in order to use in a class. Good, clear, accessible, but it also reinforced my sense that there’s something fundamentally wrong with econometrics. I think there is a deep reason why so many textbook examples are about how much of pay differences are due to differences in innate ability – that is the kind of question econometrics is designed to answer. Anyway, if you’re teaching (or taking) a class on statistics or econometrics, you might well want to look at this.  Otherwise, not.

The Histories, by Herodotus (Landmark edition). I’m trying to think of a way to not sound like an asshole when I say that I read all this to 8-year old Eli, and that we are now reading Thucydides. Nope, no luck. (ETA: We finished Thucydides and moved on to Xenophon.)

The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy and the Life of John Maynard Keynes, by Zach Carter. The first two thirds of this is a quite good and timely biography of Keynes. It benefits from the fact that author is a journalist rather than an economist — his interest is in how Keynes’ various writings were responding to particular political situations, rather than trying to fit them all into one coherent system. And then the last third is random gossip about postwar economists and greatest hits from the wikipedia “macroeconomic policy” page. Oh well. 

Radical Hamilton: Economic Lessons from a Misunderstood Founder, by Christian Parenti. Christian is an old friend and colleague. I read most of this in draft, but I reread it this year after it came out. It’s very good.

The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy, by Stephanie Kelton. I reviewed it in The American Prospect. I also discussed it at more length on the Current Affairs podcast. 

Keynes against Capitalism: His Economic Case for Liberal Socialism, by Jim Crotty. Another one I read in draft, years ago in this case. The ideas in this book, and in the articles that preceded it (especially this one), and even more all the conversations with Jim over the 20 years since I first studied macroeconomics with him, have so fundamentally shaped my thinking about Keynes and about economics that honestly it’s hard to evaluate the book as a book. But I think it’s important, and very good. Maybe read the articles first?

The Half Has Never Been Told: Slavery and the Making of American Capitalism, by Edward Baptist. I used this in my economic history class last spring. It works very well in the classroom — reads like a novel, and very effectively connects concrete experiences of slavery to economic logic of the system as a whole. There have been a number of claims that the book misrepresents or distorts the material it draws on in the service of its larger narrative, at least some of which unfortunately seem to be valid. I still haven’t decided whether/to what extent these problems cancel out the book’s merits.

Labor’s War At Home: The CIO In World War II, by Nelson Lichtenstein. This was one that had been sitting on my shelves for years and years, which I finally picked up while working on my articles on WWII economic policy with Andrew Bossie (here and here). In those papers we emphasized the positive lessons from the war, but the book gives a sense of the much more radical direction wartime economic planning might have gone in, but didn’t.

Zapata and the Mexican Revolution, by John Womack. Read this after listening to the Mexican revolution series on the Revolutions podcast, which draws on it heavily. If you’re looking for a genuine hero, someone thoroughly admirable, in the history of radical politics, I don’t know that you can do better than Zapata.

American Slavery American Freedom: The Ordeal of Colonial Virginia, by Edmund Morgan. Another book I read in order to use in my economic history class. A classic for a reason.

Pale Horse, Pale Rider, by Katherine Anne Porter Laura was casting around for fiction dealing with the 1918 flu pandemic, which is surprisingly hard to find, and finally lighted on this. It’s a beautiful set of three linked novellas, wrestling in different ways with the ways in which one’s choices are or should be constrained by one’s personal or family past. (Only  one involves the influenza epidemic.) The middle story (“Noon Wine”) is especially striking for the fully realized interior life granted its rural, working-class characters, which you never find in writing about similar milieus by someone like Faulkner.

Freedom From the Market: America’s Fight to Liberate Itself from the Grip of the Invisible Hand, by Mike Konczal. Mike is one of the few people in the world that I agree with about almost everything, so naturally I agreed with everything in this book. Reading it felt like picking up loose ends from numerous conversations over the past five or six years: oh, that’s where that was going. Well, that’s why I liked it, but you would probably like it too. It’s a good book.

 

Previous editions:

2019 books

2017 Books

2016 books

2015 books

2013 books

2012 books I

2012 books II

2010 books I

2010 books II

 

At Jacobin: Review of Beth Popp Berman’s Thinking Like an Economist

(This review appeared in the Summer 2022 edition of Jacobin.)

After the passage of Medicare and Medicaid, universal health insurance seemed to be on its way. In 1971, the New York Times observed that “Americans from all strata of society … are swinging over to the idea that good health care, like good education, ought to be a fundamental right of citizenship.” That same year, Ted Kennedy introduced a bill providing universal coverage with no payments at the point of service, on the grounds that “health care for all our people must now be recognized as a right.” The bill didn’t pass, but it laid down a marker for future health care reform.

But when Democratic presidents and congresses took up health care in later years they chose a different path. Rather than pitching health care as a right of citizenship, the goal was better-functioning markets for health care as a commodity. From the “consumer choice health plan” proposed by Alain Enthoven in the Carter administration, though the 1993 Clinton plan down to Obama’s ACA, the goal of reform was no longer the universal provision of health care, but addressing certain specific failures in the market for health insurance.

The intellectual roots of this shift are the subject of Beth Popp Berman’s new book Thinking Like an Economist: How Efficiency Replaced Equity in U.S. Public Policy. A distinct style of thinking, she argues, reshaped ideas how about how government should work and what it could achieve. This “economic style” of thinking, originating among Democrats rather than on the Right, “centered efficiency and cost-effectiveness, choice and incentives, and competition and the market mechanism… Its implicit theory of politics imagined that disinterested technocrats could make reasonably neutral, apolitical policy decisions.” Rather than see particular domains of public life, like health care or the environment, as embodying their own distinct goals and logics, they were imagined in terms of an idealized market, where the question was what specific market failure, if any, the government should correct.

The book traces this evolution in various policy domains, focusing on the microeconomic questions of regulation, social provision and market governance rather than the higher-profile debates among macroeconomists. Covering mainly the period of the Kennedy through Reagan administrations, with brief discussions of more recent developments, the book documents how the economic style of reasoning displaced alternative ways of thinking about policy questions. The first generation of environmental regulation, for example, favored high, inflexible standards such as simply forbidding emission of certain substances. Workplace and consumer safety laws similarly favored categorical prohibitions and requirements.

But to regulators trained in economics, this made no sense. To an economist, “the optimal level of air pollution, worker illness, or car accidents might be lower than its current level, but it was probably not zero.” As economist Marc Roberts wrote with frustration of the Clean Water Act, “There is no be no case-by-case balancing of costs and benefits, no attempt at ‘fine-tuning’ the process of resource allocation.’”

The book has aroused hostility from economists, who insist that this is an unfairly one-sided portrayal of their profession. I think Berman has the better of the argument here. As anyone who has taken an economics course in college can confirm, there really is such a thing as “thinking like an economist,” even if not every economist thinks that way. Framing every question as a problem of optimization under constraints is a very particular style of reasoning. And, as Berman observes, the most important site of this thinking is not the work of professional economists with their “frontier research,” but undergraduate classes and in schools of public policy where those in government, non-profits, and the press acquire this perspective.

Berman also is right to link this distinctive economic style of reasoning to a narrowing of American political horizons. At the same time, she is appropriately cautious about attributing too much independent influence to it — ideas matter, she suggests, but as tools of power rather than sources of it.

The problem with the book is not that she is unfair to economists; it’s that she concedes too much ground to them. Thinking Like an Economist is attentive to the shifting backgrounds of leaders and staff in federal agencies — if you’re wondering who was the first economics PhD to head the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division, this is the book for you. But this institutional history, while important, sometimes crowds out critical engagement with the ideas being discussed.

Take the term efficiency, which seems to occur on almost every page of the book, starting with the cover. The essence of the economic style, says Berman, is that government should make decisions “to promote efficiency.” But what does that mean?

We know what “efficient” means as applied to, say, a refrigerator. It means comparing a measurable input (electricity, in this case) to a well-defined outcome (a given volume maintained at a given temperature). There is nothing distinct to economics in preferring a more energy-efficient to a less energy-efficient appliance. Unions planning organizing campaigns, socialists running in elections, or public housing administrators all similarly face the problem of getting the most out of their scarce resources.

But what if the question is whether you should have a refrigerator in the first place, or if refrigerators ought to be privately owned? What could “efficient” mean here?

To an economist, the answer is the one that maximizes “utility” or “welfare.” These things, of course, are unobservable. So the measurement of inputs and output that defines efficiency in the every day sense is impossible.

Instead, what we do is start with an abstract model in which all choices involve using or trading property claims, and people know and care about only their own private interests. Then we show that in this model, exchange at market prices will satisfy a particular definition of efficiency — either Pareto, where no one can get a better outcome without someone else getting a worse one, or Kaldor-Hicks, where improvements to one person’s situation at the expense of another’s are allowed as long as the winners could, in principle, make the losers whole. Finally, in a sort of argument by homonym, this specialized and near-tautological meaning of “efficiency” is imported back into real-world settings, where it is used interchangeably with the everyday doing-more-with-less one.

When someone steeped in the economic style of thinking says “efficiency,” they mean something quite different from what normal people would. Rather than a favorable ratio of measurable out- puts to inputs, they mean a desirable outcome in terms of unmeasurable welfare or utility, which is simply assumed to be reached via markets. A great part of the power of economics in policy debates comes through the conflation of these two meanings. A common-sensical wish to get better outcomes with less resources gets turned into a universal rule that economic life should be organized around private property and private exchange.

Berman is well aware of the ambiguities of her key term, and the book contains some good discussions of these different meanings. But that understanding seldom makes it into the primary narrative of the book, where economists are allowed to pose as advocates of an undifferentiated “efficiency,” as opposed to non-economic social and political values. This forces Berman into the position of arguing that making government programs work well is in conflict with making them fair, when in reality an ideological preference for markets is often in conflict with both.

To be sure, there are cases where Berman’s frame works. Health care as a right is fundamentally different from a good that should be delivered efficiently, by whatever meaning. But in other cases, it leads her seriously astray. There are many things to criticize in the United States’ thread- bare welfare state. But is one of them really that it focuses too much on raising recipients’ in- comes, as opposed to relieving their “feelings of anomie and alienation”? Or again, there are many reasons to prefer 1960s and ‘70s style environmental regulation, with simple categorical rules, to the more recent focus on incentives and flexibility. But I am not sure that “the sacredness of Mother Earth” is the most convincing one.

That last phrase is Berman’s, from the introduction. It’s noteworthy that in her long and informative chapter on environmental regulation, we never hear the case for strong, inflexible standards being made in such terms. Rather, the first generation of regulators “built ambitious and relatively rigid rules … because they saw inflexibility as a tool for preventing capture” by industry, and because they believed that “setting high, even seemingly unrealistic standards … could drive rapid improvements” in technology. Meanwhile, their economics-influenced opponents like Charles Schultze (a leading economist in the Johnson and Carter administrations, and a central figure in the book) and Carter EPA appointee Bill Drayton, seem to have been motivated less by measurable policy outcomes than by objections on principle to “command and control” regulation. As one colleague described Drayton’s belief that companies should be allowed to offset emissions at one plant with reductions elsewhere, “What was driving Bill was pure intellectual conviction that this was a truly elegant approach — The Right Approach, with a capital ’T’ and ‘R’.” This does not look like a conflict between the values of equity and efficiency. It looks like a conflict between the goal of making regulation effective on one side, versus a preference for markets as such on the other.

On anti-trust regulation, the subject of another chapter in the book, the efficiency-versus-equity frame also obscures more than it reveals. The fundamental shift here was, as Berman says, away from a concern with size or market share, toward a narrower focus on horizontal agreements between competitors. And it is true that this shift was sometimes justified in terms of the supposed greater efficiency of dominant firms. But we shouldn’t take this justification at face value. As critical anti-trust scholars like Sanjukta Paul have shown, courts were not really interested in evidence for (or against) such efficiency. Rather, the guiding principle was a preference for top-down coordination by owners over other forms of economic coordination. This is why centralized price-setting by Amazon is acceptable, but an effort to bargain jointly with it by publishers was unacceptable; or why manufacturers’ prohibitions on resale of their products were accept- able but the American Medical Association’s limits on advertising by physicians was unacceptable. The issue here is not efficiency versus equity, or even centralized versus decentralized economic decision making. It’s about what kind of authority can be exercised in the economic sphere.

Berman ends the book with the suggestion that rebuilding the public sector calls for rethinking the language in which policies are understood and evaluated. On this, I fully agree. Readers who were politically active in the 2000s may recall the enormous mobilizations against George W. Bush’s proposals for Social Security privatization — and the failure, after those were abandoned, to translate this defensive program into a positive case for expanding social insurance. More recently, we’ve seen heroic labor actions by public teachers across the country. But while these have sometimes succeeded in their immediate goals, they haven’t translated into a broader argument for the value of public services and civil service protections.

As Berman says, it’s not enough to make the case for particular public programs; what we need is better language to make the positive case for the public sector in general.